The used van market will continue to favour sellers going into 2014 despite increases in the age and mileage of stock, according to long term trend data from BCA.
The auction giant has reported consistent rises in values over the last 12 months and expects the trend to continue as the economy recovers.
Average van prices are up almost 43% to £4854 in 2013 compared to five years ago even though mileage is up 9000 miles to 79,847 and age has risen 11 months to over 58 months.
BCA’s CV boss Duncan Ward said the shortage of good quality stock remained the key factor in driving up prices.
“Demand has been right across the board,” said Ward, “from older higher mileage vans through to younger ex-fleet and lease vehicles, while the few late-plate light commercials on offer can make exceptional values.”
With all the balls in the vendors’ court, Ward added: “From the buyers’ perspective the outlook for 2014 is that supply issues could actually worsen. There was a significant drop in new van sales between 2008 and 2009 and with the average van being sold at just under five years old this will be reflected in the volume of used vans reaching the wholesale markets in 2014.”
The average age of LCVs on UK roads is now 7.4 years, according to BCA, up from under 6.9 in 2007 and vans over nine years old represent by far the largest percentage of the parc.
In contrast Manheim Remarketing has seen some stability return to the market and predicted overall values would drop in the first half of next year.
The firm said October’s average value of £4250 was the same as in September and also mirrored that of October 2012.
But Manheim recorded significant swings between segments where age and mileage influenced values. For example, an influx of younger stock drove up month-on-month light van values from £4122 to £4243 while small van values fell from £3321 to £2892 as age and mileage increased.
Manheim’s CV manager Tim Spencer said: “These differing values can be closely linked to variations in age and mileages. This is a good thing as it shows the market is now operating as we would expect, with supply and demand closer to equilibrium.”
Spencer predicted values would remain robust until the year-end but added:
“I expect values to soften by as much as 10% in the first half of 2014.”