
With various factors at play, including a change of government, a cost of living crisis, not to mention pressure on manufacturers to sell more electric
vans, 2024 could be forgiven for being a testing time for those involved in the used van industry.
“At the beginning of 2024, I bet no one thought that prices would drop by 25.1% in the year,” said Dionne Hanlon, senior editor, commercial vehicles at valuation data providers cap-hpi. “To say that 2024 has been a difficult year for LCVs is an understatement. Values started to erode dramatically from July, causing very significant movements.”
Broadly agreeing, Andy Picton, specialist residual value analyst and team leader at Glass’s said “Demand for used LCVs has increased during the year with supply and demand now well balanced, but used auction prices have fallen 20% on average over the year although are still over 15% higher than pre-pandemic 2019.” Citing factors that have been present to depress the market, Picton added, “There’s been an oversupply of ‘samey’ stock to the used market. An abundance of white vehicles, and high mileage, damaged vans.”
Observing a more positive sentiment from members, Phillip Nothard, chair of the Vehicle Remarketing Association (VRA) said, “Generally, 2024 has been a pretty buoyant year for used van sales, according to VRA members. There are some weaker points in the market around specific models and sectors but overall, we’ve seen consistently good volumes and conversion rates, while price falls following the post-pandemic boom have stabilised, to a degree.”
View from the podium
The auction industry provides possibly the most accurate indicator of supply, demand, trends and buyer sentiment, handling thousands of disposals each year to the trade. Managing director of Shoreham Vehicle Auctions, Alex Wright, has observed a year of two halves. “The used LCV market experienced a tough ride in 2024 until August – a month when traditionally the sector slows right down – it woke up and it has been buoyant ever since. The 2024 market ended more positive than at any time than I have seen in 35 years of working in the industry with vendors selling and dealers buying right up to Christmas.” This volatility was also reflected at G3 Vehicle Auctions, as Sam Magee, LCV auctioneer highlights: “We saw a very different market trend throughout 2024, with some huge price adjustments from March through to September. We challenged the market and worked with the vendors to find a home for stock where desirability had plummeted. The biggest challenge was the Sprinter L2/H2 stock which we saw an abundance of from all suppliers’.
The theme of 2024 being a testing year was ever present for Motor Auction Group, as Geoff Flood, head of LCV said: “2024 was an extremely difficult year for the LCV market in general, the building trade is on its back side with high interest rates and the general cost of living making the retail sector quiet. This was reflected in the auction halls with conversions being at the lowest that I can remember in recent years.” Highlighting the role that prime retail stock had in boosting performance, Flood added: “The real winners were the vendors who invested in metallic paint, top of the range models, these always seem to ignore the general market and make their money. If in good condition, they were doing Cap Clean and beyond.”
Manheim Auction Services, one of the largest remarketing companies also saw a challenging year as Matthew Davock, director of commercial vehicles explained: “Overall, in 2024 the used van industry witnessed many obstacles and one of them was the realignment of used van/LCV values. On average, according to Manheim Auction data, van values declined by 9.2% or £809 during the calendar year, with some market segments seeing much heavier reductions as overall used values rebalanced from the dizzy heights gained during the pandemic boom period for used van values.”
But, as others have cited, the end of the year saw a welcome uptick in performance, as Davock highlights: “In the closing quarter to 2024 Manheim recorded its strongest average selling prices for a five-month period and the year finished extremely strongly with average selling prices showing a positive uplift of +£288 versus Q2 2024 averages. This was certainly a positive end to the year for the used market industry and Manheim expects this to follow suit into the first quarter of 2025.”
Closest to the retail van customer has to be the dealer who will be the first to see changing patterns in buyer behaviour. “2024 hasn’t really seen much in terms of groundbreaking shifts in trends,” observed Richard James, head of used commercial vehicles at Pentagon Motor Group. Citing how critical provenance is for a retailer, he added, “Time pressures regarding stock turn mean we are all on the lookout for clean vans with two keys and documented history that can pretty much go straight onto the pitch. There seems to be more and more vans coming into the market with a less than stellar service record and to me the penalties for not servicing vans on contract simply must not be high enough (or properly enforced) to be in end users’ minds given the amount we are offered that have never even looked at a spanner.”
Looking ahead
The outlook for 2025? Our contributors were asked their opinion on what the next 12 months might bring. Glass’s Picton said: “Demand for used LCVs to remain strong certainly for the first half of 2025. With fewer numbers of new registrations in 2022, expectations are that there will be lower volumes of three year old stock back to the used market during the second half of 2025/first half of 2026.” This was echoed by cap-hpi’s Hanlon, who said: “We expect that volume is likely to remain reasonably high throughout the first quarter of 2025 but could then be impacted by undersupply, as 2022 saw 73,241 fewer registrations than 2021.”
The VRA’s Nothard sees a mixed outlook: “Further falls in 2025 are possible, especially bearing in mind that there is a lot of tired, older stock around that has limited appeal to used buyers, but they probably won’t be dramatic. Overall, we expect the market to stay reasonably strong in the new year.”
G3’s Magee sees some volatility within product sectors on the horizon. “Through 2025, we will see a more seasonal year ahead, I can’t see a huge plunge in prices at any point on a whole, I’m sure there will be a captive of models that will see the values have to take some radical adjustment, mainly in the 4×4 double cab markets as we get closer to April.” Predicting a tough year ahead, Pentagon’s James concluded: “2025 looks like a year to batten down the hatches and deal hard with interest rates remaining high and supply being far less of an issue, which without doubt had a real influence on the majority of 2024’s used activity.”
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