Only 50% of UK fleet vans are predicted to still be using diesel or petrol power alone by 2025, according to research by leasing company Arval.

The latest finding from the firm’s Mobility Observatory Barometer survey shows that fleet decision makers, who were asked what percentage of their fleet would still be either petrol or diesel powered in three years’ time, expect electrification to progress quickly.

With Arval also finding that just 28% of company cars are expected to be non-electrified by that time, head of the Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK Shaun Sadlier said: “The numbers show the anticipated rapidity of the decline of 100% petrol and diesel powered vehicles. This view is remarkably consistent across companies of all sizes according to our data – from those with fewer than 10 employees to those with more than 1,000 – and there is an absolute expectation that electrification will happen at speed and across all vehicle types.

“However, it’s worth underlining that these findings are forecasts rather than fact and may be overoptimistic in the case of vans, where there are issues around supply and model choice, as well as cost and operational challenges. Bearing in mind this situation, the speed of change may in fact take longer than the next three years.

“Our view is that the data should perhaps instead be viewed less as an outright prediction and more as an indication of the commitment of fleet operators to electrification, which, in the light of the results seen here, cannot be doubted and if we can resolve issues such as the supply and charging of electric vehicles it is likely the transition will take place sooner rather than later.”

The results for the UK were also ahead of 19 other European countries surveyed, from which the number of remaining pure diesel or petrol company vans by 2025 was expected to be 64%.