A combination of the slump in new sales in the recession and large fleets holding onto their vans for longer has triggered a decline in the availability of cheap, good-quality used LCVs.
Cooke said: “Small businesses are the largest buyers of used vans and typically prefer vehicles up to five years old.”
He forecasts the supply shortage would drive up average vehicle age and potentially lead to there being fewer vans on
the roads.
Despite the partial recovery in new sales last year, volumes remain well short of the 300,000-plus units shifted annually between 2004 and 2007.
Cooke said this means 350,000 fewer vans will reach the used market over the next five years, resulting in a bulge of older stock.
By 2016, he said nearly half of the available LCV stock in the UK would be at least nine years old.
“When new LCV sales plummet and remain low for such a prolonged period it has a lasting impact on the availability of used stock,” Cooke said.
As the economy improves, he said demand would exceed supply by a considerable margin, pushing up prices to uncomfortable levels for small businesses.