The upsurge in new van sales is set to punch a hole in the ongoing, massive rise in used light commercial values, according to Cap.
The company predicts that the unprecedented value gains seen in recent years will stall by the end of 2014.
Values of three-year-old vans have risen by around 50% since 2010, according to Cap’s Red Book, which gives the example of a short wheelbase, 60,000-mile Transit having increased in value from £4800 to £7100 over this period.
“Nobody in the industry, including ourselves, anticipated the rate at which demand has increased,” said Cap’s commercial vehicle forecast values expert Tim Cattlin. “Economic recovery has therefore unleashed serious pent-up demand into the auction halls and onto the trader’s pitch.”
Cattlin believes that thanks to 2011’s substantial market recovery of new light van sales, the used market will alter as replacement cycles result in these vehicles filtering into it as the year progresses.
“We believe the market for used light commercial vehicles will remain buoyant for the next few months, but values will begin to ease later in the year,” said Cattlin. “Quite how pronounced this softening will be remains to be seen, but a pivotal point may well be the typically quiet period over Christmas. We will therefore be watching particularly carefully to see if the normally strong recovery in January is as pronounced as usual.”