The commercial vehicle market is seeing a shift from new to used vehicles, according to Cox Automotive.

The data firm has published new forecasts, as part of a newly launched programme, showing that the UK new van market is expected to decline in 2025 by 11.3%, while the used market is expected to decline by only 0.9%.

Cox added that the used market forecast represented an 11.9% increase since 2019, which it said illustrated a substantial shift between the two markets since 2020, with buyers increasingly opting for reasonably priced used vans over new models.   

However, it said that the used market still faced its own challenges.

Matthew Davock, director of commercial vehicles at Cox Automotive’s Manheim UK, said: “Higher mileage vehicles continue to present a challenge for valuations due to extended fleet replacement cycles and a greater variation in condition. 

“Similarly, the imbalance between supply and demand for some segments, particularly in the small van and 4×4 pickup segments, may continue to impact values in the coming months. 

“Currently, the forecast residual values in the used van market have been revised down by an average of 1.5% compared with the previous month, reflecting typical seasonal trends and economic uncertainty. As a business, however, Manheim Auction Services is outperforming the market averages.”

On the subject of electric vans, although these have seen a 55.5% increase in new registrations so far this year, Cox says used market values are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, retail hesitancy, and cost barriers compared with diesel and petrol models.

Davock said: “The used electric van market is a mixed picture. Demand for these vehicles is increasing, and we are seeing an increase in volumes across our sites, but adoption remains below the government’s mandated market share as buyer confidence remains challenged. 

“Concerns such as carry capacity and range anxiety continue to hinder further adoption. The values of these vehicles are expected to remain volatile due to limited transaction data, buyer hesitancy and higher running costs.”